Predictability of noise-controlled dynamics

Physica D (1999)

G.D. Lythe

Centre for Nonlinear Studies
Los Alamos National Laboratory
NM87545, USA.

M.R.E. Proctor

University of Cambridge
Cambridge, CB3 9EW, UK.


Noise-controlled dynamics runs counter to usual intuition: the larger the noise the more regular the solutions. We present numerical and analytical results for a set of three stochastic partial differential equations in one space dimension, motivated by the intermittent destabilisation of tall thin convection cells by horizontal shear. Time series are predictable in the sense that they follow limit cycles with a small variation in amplitude from cycle to cycle. Closer inspection reveals that the amplitude is determined by very small amounts of noise.

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